Forecast against plan
Amazon publishes its own demand forecast per ASIN, with percentile bands, and almost nobody reads it. It is the single best available signal about what Amazon is going to order, because Amazon is the one placing the order. Where it disagrees with the internal plan, one of the two is about to be wrong and there is money on both sides of that.
Top 400 ASINs by volume
Amazon MAPE
18.8%
Mean absolute % error, closed months
Plan MAPE
22.8%
Internal demand plan
Amazon bias
+2.1%
Positive means over-forecast
Plan bias
+4.4%
Positive means over-planned
P70 coverage
70%
Nominal 70%
P90 coverage
90%
Nominal 90%
Forward gap
$398K
Plan above Amazon
P90 shortfall
$3.2M
20 ASINs short of Sep 26 P90
The biggest disagreement is Nov 26: Amazon forecasts 112,257 units against a plan of 113,512, a gap of 1,255 units ($111,188 at retail). Plan above Amazon means inventory is being bought for demand Amazon does not expect, which shows up later as storage cost and an aged surcharge.
History: actual against both forecastsClosed months, units
Forward: Amazon against planNext four periods, units
Forward periodsUnits and the retail value of the disagreement
| Period | Plan | Amazon mean | Amazon P90 | Gap to plan | Gap % | Retail value of gap | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 | 86,118 | 85,161 | 114,107 | -957 | -1% | $83,157 | Over-planned: expect storage cost on the excess |
| Oct 26 | 93,938 | 92,892 | 124,457 | -1,046 | -1% | $92,121 | Over-planned: expect storage cost on the excess |
| Nov 26 | 113,512 | 112,257 | 150,414 | -1,255 | -1% | $111,188 | Over-planned: expect storage cost on the excess |
| Dec 26 | 113,512 | 112,257 | 150,414 | -1,255 | -1% | $111,188 | Over-planned: expect storage cost on the excess |
Most under-planned ASINsAmazon forecasting above plan, ranked by retail value
| ASIN | Brand | Plan | Amazon | Gap | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B0DHYKF888 Camp Chef 14in Cast Iron Skillet Sand S | Camp Chef | 1,109 | 1,667 | +558 | $260,843 |
| B0T2DQRPPP Bell Sanction 2 DLX Sand S | Bell | 2,388 | 2,873 | +485 | $224,380 |
| B09386XPPP Camp Chef 14in Cast Iron Skillet Graphite OS | Camp Chef | 1,972 | 2,302 | +330 | $151,100 |
| B0MM85RGGG Primos The Original CAN Call Olive OS | Primos | 1,632 | 1,919 | +287 | $148,594 |
| B0LB3RLKKK CamelBak Eddy+ 32oz Black M | CamelBak | 1,317 | 1,636 | +319 | $140,602 |
| B0Z0DM5000 Bushnell CelluCORE 30 Trail Cam Blue M | Bushnell | 1,460 | 1,954 | +494 | $125,348 |
| B0DC232ZYY Giro Aether Spherical Graphite M | Giro | 1,664 | 2,076 | +412 | $112,748 |
| B03SHBA111 Foresight Sports GCQuad Package Olive OS | Foresight Sports | 2,274 | 2,675 | +401 | $103,731 |
| B0AATQ8777 CamelBak Chute Mag 1L Bottle Olive L | CamelBak | 947 | 1,105 | +158 | $89,886 |
| B0PXYH0ZYY CamelBak M.U.L.E. 12 Hydration Pack Red OS | CamelBak | 1,025 | 1,220 | +195 | $87,896 |
| B0CB1CXNNN Primos Gobbstopper Decoy Olive XL | Primos | 1,162 | 1,342 | +180 | $87,482 |
| B0TZLA5333 Bell Trigger Youth Camo L | Bell | 538 | 720 | +182 | $82,444 |
| B09KQHQNNN Bell Super Air R Spherical | Bell | 477 | 661 | +184 | $75,057 |
| B0XCPDWPPP Simms Fishing Dry Creek Z Sling Blue S | Simms Fishing | 599 | 1,036 | +437 | $73,919 |
| B0YZENEAAA Fox Racing Speedframe Pro Helmet Camo L | Fox Racing | 541 | 901 | +360 | $73,458 |
| B0SDEL0UTT Simms Fishing Freestone Z Wader Olive S | Simms Fishing | 1,236 | 1,557 | +321 | $72,074 |
| B0SLLQ0ZYY CamelBak Chute Mag 1L Bottle Sand OS | CamelBak | 1,162 | 1,470 | +308 | $70,510 |
| B0KF199555 Fox Racing Ranger 2.5 Short Black L | Fox Racing | 424 | 555 | +131 | $69,599 |
| B0T554CAAA CamelBak Rogue Light 7 Pack Graphite S | CamelBak | 1,116 | 1,313 | +197 | $66,750 |
| B0NHAM2XWW Bushnell Nitro 3-12x44 Riflescope Black L | Bushnell | 695 | 915 | +220 | $61,629 |
Most over-planned ASINsPlan above Amazon, ranked by retail value
| ASIN | Brand | Plan | Amazon | Gap | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B02M8EKDDD Bushnell Trophy Xtreme 8x56 Slate S | Bushnell | 1,797 | 1,197 | -600 | $264,342 |
| B0V955MCCC Primos Bloodhunter HD Light Olive XL | Primos | 1,826 | 1,161 | -665 | $149,625 |
| B0VE4EE888 Bushnell Engage X 4-16x44 Camo M | Bushnell | 1,491 | 1,177 | -314 | $143,916 |
| B0CETRH999 Primos Double Bull SurroundView 360 | Primos | 2,223 | 1,693 | -530 | $138,372 |
| B0K4J69222 Camp Chef Woodwind Pro 24 Pellet Grill | Camp Chef | 967 | 767 | -200 | $132,518 |
| B0MUE9RMMM Fox Racing Ranger 2.5 Short Black L | Fox Racing | 1,026 | 800 | -226 | $121,403 |
| B0ALNGFCCC Giro Manifest Spherical Blue L | Giro | 1,900 | 1,588 | -312 | $120,607 |
| B0LHJSD666 Camp Chef Competition Blend Pellets Red XL | Camp Chef | 2,163 | 1,521 | -642 | $117,627 |
| B0F67C4WVV Primos Trigger Stick Gen 3 Tall Tripod | Primos | 1,298 | 893 | -405 | $114,072 |
| B02UEJKJJJ CamelBak Chute Mag 1L Bottle Slate S | CamelBak | 1,772 | 1,195 | -577 | $101,390 |
| B0QV435222 Giro Manifest Spherical Slate L | Giro | 1,797 | 1,334 | -463 | $92,836 |
| B010H51TSS Blackhawk Ammo Pack Duty Belt Slate XL | Blackhawk | 1,836 | 1,478 | -358 | $90,177 |
| B06BUKA333 Camp Chef Sherpa Table & Organizer Olive M | Camp Chef | 1,417 | 1,087 | -330 | $85,437 |
| B0CTHPQMMM Giro Ranalli Glasses Graphite L | Giro | 2,693 | 1,609 | -1,084 | $81,679 |
| B034PQ3222 CamelBak Podium Dirt Series 21oz Sand M | CamelBak | 1,234 | 800 | -434 | $76,323 |
| B0GSD29555 Fox Racing 360 Dier Pant Sand L | Fox Racing | 1,477 | 1,097 | -380 | $71,436 |
| B0N9NQ2111 CamelBak Skyline LR 10 Slate L | CamelBak | 1,419 | 1,170 | -249 | $67,402 |
| B0KMK2GCCC Fox Racing V1 Nuklr Helmet Blue L | Fox Racing | 950 | 750 | -200 | $67,094 |
| B0NKHG9666 Giro Cartelle Snow Red OS | Giro | 2,535 | 1,980 | -555 | $67,050 |
| B0BPTADBBB Bell Trigger Youth Olive L | Bell | 2,775 | 2,025 | -750 | $62,738 |
Short of P90 for Sep 26On hand plus inbound against Amazon's P90 · ranked by retail value at risk
| ASIN | Brand | On hand + inbound | Amazon mean | Amazon P90 | Shortfall to P90 | Value at risk | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B0T2DQRPPP Bell Sanction 2 DLX Sand S | Bell | 0 | 608 | 815 | 815 | $377,052 | Short of mean |
| B09386XPPP Camp Chef 14in Cast Iron Skillet Graphite OS | Camp Chef | 0 | 487 | 652 | 652 | $298,538 | Short of mean |
| B0UJ5QGEEE Bell 4Forty Air MIPS Blue S | Bell | 0 | 319 | 427 | 427 | $237,130 | Short of mean |
| B0DHYKF888 Camp Chef 14in Cast Iron Skillet Sand S | Camp Chef | 0 | 352 | 472 | 472 | $220,641 | Short of mean |
| B0W6S5C444 Blackhawk Stache IWB Premium Sand M | Blackhawk | 0 | 670 | 898 | 898 | $215,556 | Short of mean |
| B03SHBA111 Foresight Sports GCQuad Package Olive OS | Foresight Sports | 0 | 566 | 758 | 758 | $196,079 | Short of mean |
| B044ZC1UTT Camp Chef SmokePro DLX 24 Sand S | Camp Chef | 0 | 229 | 307 | 307 | $179,371 | Short of mean |
| B0ALNGFCCC Giro Manifest Spherical Blue L | Giro | 0 | 336 | 450 | 450 | $173,952 | Short of mean |
| B0DC232ZYY Giro Aether Spherical Graphite M | Giro | 0 | 439 | 588 | 588 | $160,912 | Short of mean |
| B0K4J69222 Camp Chef Woodwind Pro 24 Pellet Grill | Camp Chef | 0 | 162 | 217 | 217 | $143,782 | Short of mean |
| B0Q77QJGGG Bell Full-9 Fusion Black XL | Bell | 0 | 202 | 271 | 271 | $115,061 | Short of mean |
| B0HXNZZSSS Camp Chef 14in Cast Iron Skillet Red M | Camp Chef | 0 | 527 | 706 | 706 | $113,024 | Short of mean |
| B00UNPWTTT Giro Cartelle Snow Red M | Giro | 0 | 240 | 322 | 322 | $112,809 | Short of mean |
| B010H51TSS Blackhawk Ammo Pack Duty Belt Slate XL | Blackhawk | 0 | 313 | 419 | 419 | $105,542 | Short of mean |
| B0WDY9C999 Giro Cartelle Snow Red OS | Giro | 0 | 187 | 251 | 251 | $94,715 | Short of mean |
| B0NR1AGDDD Giro Fixture II Red L | Giro | 0 | 488 | 654 | 654 | $92,554 | Short of mean |
| B0TZLA5333 Bell Trigger Youth Camo L | Bell | 0 | 152 | 204 | 204 | $92,410 | Short of mean |
| B0ZHEHCAAA Bell Sanction 2 DLX Slate S | Bell | 0 | 299 | 401 | 401 | $85,425 | Short of mean |
| B0JPDHB999 Bell 4Forty Air MIPS Blue S | Bell | 0 | 377 | 505 | 505 | $84,234 | Short of mean |
| B0E2HZSKKK Camp Chef Competition Blend Pellets Graphite M | Camp Chef | 0 | 510 | 683 | 683 | $80,410 | Short of mean |
The percentile bands are the point of this feed. Planning to the mean means being short roughly half the time by construction, which is why the coverage figures above are checked against their nominal values rather than assumed: a P90 band that only covers 60% of actuals is not a safety stock policy, it is a rounding error with a label. Amazon's forecast arrives through Data Kiosk on the vendor analytics schema, weekly, and is listed on Integrations.